Assessing the Relationship between Economic Growth and Emissions Levels in South Africa between 1994 and 2019

Abstract

The objective of this study is to establish whether there is any relationship between economic growth and emission levels for pollutants (namely carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon (BC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)) in South Africa, for the period from 1994 to 2019. Data from the world bank, namely gross domestic product (GDP) and CO2 emissions, were used. BC, SO2, and CO data were obtained from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). The linear correlation coefficient and the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis test were used to determine the relationships. The sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) test was further used to study the trends. A correlation coefficient of 0.84, which indicates a strong positive linear correlation, between GDP and CO2 emission was observed. However, the relationship between GDP and CO concentration showed a correlation coefficient of −0.05, indicating no linear relationship between the two variables. The EKC hypothesis showed an N-shape for SO2 and CO. Overall, the results of this study indicate that emissions levels are generally correlated with economic growth. Therefore, a stringent regulatory system is needed to curtail the high emissions levels observed in this study, given the devastating impacts of global warming already ravaging the world.