Application of Mathematical Models to Assess the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Logistics Businesses and Recovery Solutions for Sustainable Development

Abstract

The logistics industry can be considered as the economic lifeline of each country because of its role in connecting production and business activities of enterprises and promoting socio-economic development between regions and countries. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, which began at the end of 2019, has seriously affected the global supply chain, causing heavy impacts on the logistics service sector. In this study, the authors used the Malmquist productivity index to assess the impact of the pandemic on logistics businesses in Vietnam. Moreover, the authors used a super-slack-based model to find strategic alliance partners for enterprises. The authors also used the Grey forecasting model to forecast the business situation for enterprises during the period 2021–2024, in order to provide the leaders of these enterprises with a complete picture of their partners as a solid basis for making decisions to implement alliances that will help logistics enterprises in Vietnam to develop sustainably. The results have found that the alliance between LO7 and LO10 is the most optimal, as this alliance can exploit freight in the opposite direction and reduce logistics costs, creating better competitiveness for businesses.