Multi-Model Comparison in the Attribution of Runoff Variation across a Humid Region of Southern China

Author:

Wang Qiang1234,Yang Fang234,Hu Xiaozhang234,Hou Peng234,Zhang Yin234ORCID,Li Pengjun5,Lin Kairong1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

2. Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510611, China

3. Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection of Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou 510611, China

4. Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou 510611, China

5. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, No. 8 Donghu South Road, Wuhan 430072, China

Abstract

The natural hydrological cycle of basins has been significantly altered by climate change and human activities, leading to considerable uncertainties in attributing runoff. In this study, the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the Ganjiang River Basin was analyzed, and a variety of models with different spatio-temporal scales and complexities were used to evaluate the influence of model choice on runoff attribution and to reduce the uncertainties. The results show the following: (1) The potential evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin showed a significant downward trend, precipitation showed a significant upward trend, runoff showed a nonsignificant upward trend, and an abrupt change was detected in 1968; (2) The three hydrological models used with different temporal scales and complexity, GR1A, ABCD, DTVGM, can simulate the natural distribution of water resources in the Ganjiang River Basin; and (3) The impact of climate change on runoff change ranges from 60.07% to 82.88%, while human activities account for approximately 17.12% to 39.93%. The results show that climate change is the main driving factor leading to runoff variation in the Ganjiang River Basin.

Funder

National Key Research and Development Program of China

Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation

Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Hydrology

Water Conservancy Youth Talent Development Funding Project

Publisher

MDPI AG

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