Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Future Predictions Using CA-ANN Simulation for Selangor, Malaysia

Abstract

Land use land cover (LULC) has altered dramatically because of anthropogenic activities, particularly in places where climate change and population growth are severe. The geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing are widely used techniques for monitoring LULC changes. This study aimed to assess the LULC changes and predict future trends in Selangor, Malaysia. The satellite images from 1991–2021 were classified to develop LULC maps using support vector machine (SVM) classification in ArcGIS. The image classification was based on six different LULC classes, i.e., (i) water, (ii) developed, (iii) barren, (iv) forest, (v) agriculture, and (vi) wetlands. The resulting LULC maps illustrated the area changes from 1991 to 2021 in different classes, where developed, barren, and water lands increased by 15.54%, 1.95%, and 0.53%, respectively. However, agricultural, forest, and wetlands decreased by 3.07%, 14.01%, and 0.94%, respectively. The cellular automata-artificial neural network (CA-ANN) technique was used to predict the LULC changes from 2031–2051. The percentage of correctness for the simulation was 82.43%, and overall kappa value was 0.72. The prediction maps from 2031–2051 illustrated decreasing trends in (i) agricultural by 3.73%, (ii) forest by 1.09%, (iii) barren by 0.21%, (iv) wetlands by 0.06%, and (v) water by 0.04% and increasing trends in (vi) developed by 5.12%. The outcomes of this study provide crucial knowledge that may help in developing future sustainable planning and management, as well as assist authorities in making informed decisions to improve environmental and ecological conditions.