Can Forest-Related Adaptive Capacity Reduce Landslide Risk Attributable to Climate Change?—Case of Republic of Korea

Abstract

Recent cases of climate disasters such as the European floods in 2021 and Korea’s longest rainy season in 2020 strongly imply the importance of adaptation to climate change. In this study, we performed a numerical prediction on how much climate change adaptation factors related to forest policy can reduce climate disasters such as landslides. We focused on the landslide in Korea and applied a machine learning model reflecting adaptive indicators in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 climate scenario. The changes in the landslide probability were estimated using the Random Forest model, which estimated the landslide probability in the baseline period (2011) with excellent performance, and the spatial adaptation indicators used in this study contributed approximately 20%. The future landslide risk predicting indicated a significant increase in the Very High and High risk areas, especially in 2092. The application of the forest-related adaptation indices based on the policy scenario showed that in 2050, the effect was not pronounced, but in 2092, when the risk of landslides was much higher, the effect increased significantly. In particular, the effect was remarkable in the Seoul metropolitan and southern coastal regions. Even with the same adaptive capacity, it exerted a larger effect on the enhanced disasters. Our results suggest that the enhancement of adaptive capacity can reduce landslide risk up to 70% in a Very High risk region. In conclusion, it implies an importance to respond to the intensifying climate disasters, and abundant follow-up studies are expected to appear in the future.