A Study on Resource Carrying Capacity and Early Warning of Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin Based on Sustainable Development Goals, China

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin is an essential ecological barrier in China, but it is relatively underdeveloped. The human–land relationship needs to be coordinated, and the ecological environment is fragile, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin. In this study, a “five-dimensional integrated” comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation model is constructed using the five dimensions of water, land, ecology, monitoring, and early warning to evaluate its resource carrying capacity quantitatively. It constructs an early warning system of the resource carrying capacity based on the quantitative evaluation results and monitors the state of the resource carrying capacity. The results show that (1) seven major urban agglomerations’ populations, grain productions, and land are surplus, and 50.85% of prefecture-level cities have food surpluses regarding human–food relationships. (2) There are shortages in the urban agglomeration’s water resources and a deficit in the water resource carrying capacity. (3) The average ecological carrying capacity index is 0.519, indicating a state of ecological affluence. (4) The comprehensive resource carrying capacity is defined as level-three heavy-load conditions, while 67%, 22%, and 14% of cities have level-one, -two, and -three heavy-load conditions, respectively. This study can aid in the monitoring of the resource carrying status of the Yellow River Basin. These results provide a scientific basis for effectively restraining the utilization and development of natural resources in the Yellow River Basin. It can also provide a research paradigm for the world’s river basins, as well as the sustainable development of man and nature in the world.