Risk Decision for a Port Shore Power Supply System Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and an Improved Gray Target

Abstract

Considering carbon neutral development strategies, ecological ports and green growth concepts have become the future development trend of ports. As an important technology for green port construction, the stable operation of port shore power systems is particularly important. However, as a new field of transmission system, the development of port shore power is also facing many new risks and challenges. For example, the shore power system has security risks as well as technical and economic difficulties. There are also problems such as the lack of regulations on shore power systems. To ensure the safe and stable operation of a port grid system, this paper proposes a risk decision method for a transmission system in a market environment based on interval number and cumulative prospect theory. Based on the constructed risk evaluation index system of a port shore power supply system, a risk decision model based on cumulative prospect theory and an improved gray target risk model (CPT-IGT) are constructed considering the uncertainty and ambiguity of the index attributes and weight information as well as the risk attitude held by decision-makers; these models are developed with improved interval gray number and cumulative prospect theory. Finally, a case study applied to the risk decision of a port shore power supply system verified the reasonableness and effectiveness of the method. The results show that the proposed method has some advantages in dealing with language terms, representing language uncertainty, and reflecting risk decisions in different environments. The research can provide a theoretical basis for the risk assessment of a port power system in the future and provide suggestions for the green growth of the port.