Review and Perspectives of Key Decarbonization Drivers to 2030

Abstract

Global climate policy commitments are encouraging the development of EU energy policies aimed at paving the way for cleaner energy systems. This article reviews key decarbonization drivers for Italy considering higher environmental targets from recent European Union climate policies. Energy efficiency, the electrification of final consumption, the development of green fuels, increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the electric system, and carbon capture and storage are reviewed. A 2030 scenario is designed to forecast the role of decarbonization drivers in future energy systems and to compare their implementation with that in the current situation. Energy efficiency measures will reduce final energy consumption by 15.6%, as primary energy consumption will decrease by 19.8%. The electrification of final consumption is expected to increase by 6.08%. The use of green fuels is estimated to triple as innovative fuels may go to market at scale to uphold the ambitious decarbonization targets set in the transportation sector. The growing trajectory of renewable sources in the energy mix is confirmed, as while power generation is projected to increase by 10%, the share of renewables in that generation is expected to increase from 39.08% to 78.16%. Capture and storage technologies are also expected to play an increasingly important role. This article has policy implications and serves as a regulatory reference in the promotion of decarbonization investments.