Flood Inflow Estimation in an Ungauged Simple Serial Cascade of Reservoir System Using Sentinel-2 Multi-Spectral Imageries: A Case Study of Imjin River, South Korea

Abstract

The Imjin River is a representative transboundary river in the Korean Peninsula, originating from North Korea and flowing into South Korea. Upstream of Imjin River, on the North Korean side, is the Hwanggang Dam, with a 350 million m3 of storage capacity, which is in operation for power generation and water supply. The sharing of the operation information of Hwanggang Dam has been limited due to political and military tension. South Korea has constructed the Gunnam Flood Control Reservoir downstream of the Imjin River to prevent potential flood damage due to the urgent and unilateral release from the Hwanggang Dam. However, it is difficult to manage the flood of the Imjin River basin under the situation of limited shared real-time information on the Hwanggang Dam operation. In this study, a hydrological analysis system was established to estimate the inflow and release of the Hwanggang Dam by building a lumped hydrological model and an Auto ROM (Reservoir Operation Method)-based reservoir operation algorithm. To estimate the inflow of the Gunnam Flood Control Reservoir, the water level of the Hwanggang Dam was calculated using the Sentinel-2 multi-spectral images, and the hydrological analysis system was calibrated. The evaluation index of the water level of the ungauged Hwanggang Dam derived from January 2017 to August 2020 using the hydrological analysis system was shown to have a coefficient of determination of 0.76 and an RMSE of 3.97 m. In the case of the flood event in August 2020, the coefficient of determination of the flood inflow in the Gunnam Flood Control Zone was calculated to be 0.86.