Spatial Modeling and Analysis of the Determinants of Property Crime in Portugal

Author:

Tavares Joana Paulo,Costa Ana CristinaORCID

Abstract

Many researchers have unraveled innovative ways of examining geographic information to better understand the determinants of crime, thus contributing to an improved understanding of the phenomenon. Property crimes represent more than half of the crimes reported in Portugal. This study investigates the spatial distribution of crimes against property in mainland Portugal with the primary goal of determining which demographic and socioeconomic factors may be associated with crime incidence in each municipality. For this purpose, Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to analyze spatial patterns, and different Poisson-based regression models were investigated, namely global models, local Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) models, and semi-parametric GWPR models. The GWPR model with eight independent variables outperformed the others. Its independent variables were the young resident population, retention and dropout rates in basic education, gross enrollment rate, conventional dwellings, Guaranteed Minimum Income and Social Integration Benefit, purchasing power per capita, unemployment rate, and foreign population. The model presents a better fit in the metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto and their neighboring municipalities. The association of each independent variable with crime varies significantly across municipalities. Consequently, these particularities should be considered in the design of policies to reduce the rate of property crimes.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Computers in Earth Sciences,Geography, Planning and Development

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3