Does Climate Change Cause an Upsurge in Food Prices?

Author:

Erdogan Sinan12ORCID,Kartal Mustafa Tevfik2345ORCID,Pata Ugur Korkut2456ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics, Hatay Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay 31060, Türkiye

2. Clinic of Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku AZ1001, Azerbaijan

3. Borsa Istanbul Strategic Planning, Financial Reporting, and Investor Relations Directorate, İstanbul 34467, Türkiye

4. Adnan Kassar School of Business, Lebanese American University, Beirut 1102-2801, Lebanon

5. Department of Banking and Finance, European University of Lefke, Lefke 99010, Northern Cyprus, Türkiye

6. Department of Economics, Osmaniye Korkut Ata University, Osmaniye 80000, Türkiye

Abstract

Climate change is the reason behind most contemporary economic problems. The rising inflationary pressures in the food sector are one of these problems, and stable food prices are a necessity for economic development and social cohesion in societies. Therefore, this study analyzes the relationship between food prices and climate change in Nigeria by using various non-linear and quantile-based methods and data from 2008m5 to 2020m12. The empirical findings indicate that (i) there is a time- and frequency-based dependence between food prices and some explanatory variables, including climate change (i.e., temperature). (ii) At higher quantiles, temperature, oil prices, food exports, monetary expansion, global food prices, agricultural prices, and fertilizer prices stimulate food prices. (iii) The increase in food prices due to the rise in temperature and the difficulties in agriculture indicate that the heatflation phenomenon is present in Nigeria. The evidence outlines that Nigerian decisionmakers should adopt a national food security policy that considers environmental, agricultural, and monetary factors to stabilize food prices.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Plant Science,Health Professions (miscellaneous),Health (social science),Microbiology,Food Science

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