Assessing Decarbonization Approaches across Major Economies

Author:

Tick Andrea1ORCID,Akaev Askar2,Devezas Tessaleno Campos3ORCID,Sarygulov Askar4,Petryakov Alexander5,Evgenevich Anufriev Igor6

Affiliation:

1. Keleti Károly Faculty of Business and Management, Óbuda University, Tavaszmező Str. 15-17, 1084 Budapest, Hungary

2. Faculty of Global Processes, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ulitsa Kolmogorova, 1, 119991 Moscow, Russia

3. Engineering Faculty, Atlântica Instituto Universitário, 2730-036 Barcarena, Portugal

4. Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Education on Technological and Economic Problems of Energy Transition, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politekhnicheskaya Ulitsa, 29, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia

5. Department of Finance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Krapivnyy Pereulok, No. 5, 194044 St. Petersburg, Russia

6. Higher School of Applied Mathematics and Computational Physics, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politekhnicheskaya Ulitsa, 29, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia

Abstract

The global energy transition is an uneven process, fundamentally related to the level of economic development of countries and their access to energy resources (renewable and non-renewable) to a large extent. The global climate is interconnected, and all nations impact it through their products and services. The six countries discussed—China, Brazil, Germany, Japan, Russia, and India—account for 44.8% of global primary energy consumption and 49% of global CO2 emissions. Each of them has its own strategy for achieving carbon neutrality, based on different decarbonization scenarios, which, according to the authors, depend on geopolitical factors, national economy characteristics, and the established pragmatic goals and objectives. However, the “green agenda” itself may not always be among the top priorities when formulating energy strategies. The study objective is to analyze the feasibility of the stated goals in these countries using a combined logistic curve-based forecasting tool for predicting solar and wind production as well as investment volumes. It aims to justify the relation between solar and wind energy production and investment policies using a calculated technological coefficient. Results show similar, but time-shifted fluctuating investment dynamics in solar and wind energy trends in Japan, Germany and China, with Germany and Japan outperforming investment forecasts when considering the technology efficiency coefficient. Furthermore, the findings highlight the overwhelming appreciation of the unevenness of the green transition process, which will consequently make it impossible to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement until 2050. Taking these factors into consideration, exploratory decarbonization scenarios for these six major world economies alongside two dimensions, namely, the pace of green transition versus green technology and versus resources, are presented.

Funder

Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference94 articles.

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