Projections for the 2050 Scenario of the Mexican Electrical System

Abstract

Electricity is fundamental to modern societies and will become even more so as its use expands through different technologies and population growth. Power generation is currently the largest source of carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions globally, but it is also the sector that is leading the transition to net zero emissions through the rapid rise of renewables. The impacts of COVID-19 on the electricity sector led to a reduction in the demand for electricity, while at the same time, the current global energy crisis has placed the security and affordability of electricity at the top of the political agenda in many countries. In this way, the decrease in the demand for electricity, as well as its gradual recovery, makes it necessary to carry out energy planning that considers the adverse effects caused by global events with a high socioeconomic impact. In this article, the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) 2020 software has been used to determine the distribution of energy sources to 2050 for Mexico. The variables that lead to the possible profiles for 2050 are social, economic, and technological. The results correspond to a possible future based on official data from the National Electric System (SEN) of Mexico. The forecast for 2050 indicates that the electricity sector will have almost double the current installed capacity; however, emissions do not correspond to twice as much: they are practically 50% higher.