X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications

Abstract

The main goal of the present paper is to improve the X-model used for day-ahead electricity price and volume forecasting. The key feature of the X-model is that it makes a day-ahead forecast for the entire wholesale supply and demand curves. The intersection of the predicted curves yields the forecast for equilibrium day-ahead prices and volumes. We take advantage of a technique for auction curves’ transformation to improve the original X-model. Instead of using actual wholesale supply and demand curves, we rely on transformed versions of these curves with perfectly inelastic demand. As a result, the computational requirements of our X-model are reduced and its forecasting power increases. Moreover, our X-model is more robust towards outliers present in the initial auction curves’ data.