Novel Prognostic Methodology of Bootstrap Forest and Hyperbolic Tangent Boosted Neural Network for Aircraft System

Abstract

Complex aviation systems’ integrity deteriorates over time due to operational factors; hence, the ability to forecast component remaining useful life (RUL) is vital to their optimal operation. Data-driven prognostic models are essential for system RUL prediction. These models benefit run-to-failure datasets the most. Thus, significant factors that could affect systematic integrity must be examined to quantify the operational component of RUL. To expand predictive approaches, the authors of this research developed a novel method for calculating the RUL of a group of aircraft engines using the N-CMAPSS dataset, which provides simulated degradation trajectories under real flight conditions. They offered bootstrap trees and hyperbolic tangent NtanH(3)Boost(20) neural networks as prognostic alternatives. The hyperbolic tangent boosted neural network uses damage propagation modelling based on earlier research and adds two accuracy levels. The suggested neural network architecture activates with the hyperbolic tangent function. This extension links the deterioration process to its operating history, improving degradation modelling. During validation, models accurately predicted observed flight cycles with 95–97% accuracy. We can use this work to combine prognostic approaches to extend the lifespan of critical aircraft systems and assist maintenance approaches in reducing operational and environmental hazards, all while maintaining normal operation. The proposed methodology yields promising results, making it suitable for adoption due to its relevance to prognostic difficulties.