Simulation of Hydrologic Change of Linggo Co during 1979–2012 Using Hydrologic and Isotopic Mass Balance Model

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding areas contain the largest number of glaciers outside the polar regions. The region affects downstream water supply and food security, thereby directly influencing one-third of the world’s population. The lakes in the central TP expanded rapidly in recent decades, which has attracted growing attention. Glacier meltwater was considered as a major component in the water balance of TP lakes, although few studies quantified its contribution. Stable isotope analysis is a powerful tool to trace hydrologic circulation, while its interpretation in paleoclimate records has been controversial. To bridge the gap between hydrologic and paleoclimatic studies, we performed a hydrologic and isotopic mass balance model to simulate the lake level change of Linggo Co in the central TP. The model was forced by the meteorological data, calibrated through observed lake level changes, and validated by oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O) of lake water. Our results indicated that glacier meltwater contributed 73.94% of the inflow water to Linggo Co before 1993 but decreased thereafter. Increasing glacier meltwater together with positive water balance (precipitation/evaporation) in the catchment contributed to the rapid expansion of Linggo Co after the mid-1990s. Lake water δ18O in Linggo Co was more sensitive to changes in the precipitation amount and precipitation δ18O than temperature. Our findings could shed light on the usage of δ18O proxy in future paleoclimate research on the TP.