The Relationship between Environmental Factors and Catch Abundance of Hairtail in the East China Sea Using Empirical Dynamic Modeling

Abstract

The East China Sea population of hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus, also known as T. japonicus) is a commercially important element of Chinese fisheries. Hairtail has long been widely exploited. Due to overfishing, however, its production declined over the years. One of solutions to this dilemma is to institute reasonable fishery policies. Generally, skillful short-term and long-term prediction of fish catch is a central tool for guiding the development of fishery policy. Accurate predictions require a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fluctuations in fish catch and variability in both fishing effort and marine environmental conditions. To investigate the combined impact of fishing effort and marine environments on hairtail catch and to develop models to predict hairtail catch, we applied empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) to data on East China Sea fisheries, including hairtail catch, fishing effort, and marine environmental factors. EDM is an equation-free approach that enables the investigation of various complex systems. We constructed all possible multivariate EDM models to investigate the potential mechanisms affecting hairtail catch. Our analysis demonstrates that all key environmental factors (salinity, summer monsoon, sea surface temperature, precipitation, and power dissipation index of tropical cyclones) have an impact on nutrient supply, which we suggest is the central factor influencing hairtail catch. Finally, our comparison of EDM models with parametric models demonstrates that EDM models overwhelmingly outperform parametric models in analysis of these complex interactions.