Unveiling the Coupling Coordination and Interaction Mechanism between the Local Heat Island Effect and Urban Resilience in China

Abstract

Climate change and urbanization have led to the increasing prominence of urban heat islands (UHIs) today, posing a huge challenge to cities. Urban resilience (UR) refers to the ability of a city or region to adapt to changes and risks. However, the influence between the heat island effect and regional urban resilience is not well understood. In this study, we proposed a methodological framework for unveiling the coupling coordination and interaction mechanism between UHIs and UR. This study first explored UHIs in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and described the creation of a multidimensional index system that evaluates urban resilience across social, economic, ecological, and engineering dimensions. Furthermore, this study unveiled the coupling coordination effect of UHIs and UR through the coupling coordination degree model, and the influence mechanism between the drivers of UHIs and the change in UR was detected using a geographic probe. The results showed that the UHI region forms a ring-shaped belt around the entrance to the Pearl River Delta. The UHIs of the GBA show a significant trend of expansion and escalation over time. The UR of the GBA shows a spatial distribution pattern of high resilience among regional central cities and low resilience among peripheral cities, with significantly uneven development in sub-resilience dimensions. The UHIs and UR of the GBA showed a certain coupling and coordination effect, improving from barely synergistic to a primary coordination state. Among the drivers of UHIs, population density, precipitation, average nighttime light brightness, and ground-average CO2 emissions have strong explanatory power for the spatial variation in UR. The interaction between two factors has a stronger influence on UR than individual factors. The purpose of this paper is to initially reveal the influence mechanism between UHIs and UR and to provide a theoretical basis for further exploring the path of sustainable urban development.