Measuring the Socioeconomic Development of Selected Balkan Countries and Hungary: A Comparative Analysis for Sustainable Growth

Abstract

The present research aimed to provide an extensive comparative analysis regarding the socioeconomic development paths of three selected Balkan countries—Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania—as well as Hungary, which was originally classified as a member of the Visegrad Four group in Central and Eastern Europe. In our paper, the Balkan states were analyzed along with Hungary, as it might be observed that since the 2008–2009 economic crisis, the latter’s economy has been increasingly diverging from that of the Visegrad club in several aspects. After having undergone a protracted transition crisis escalated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, the micro-region has exhibited a truly contradictious development trajectory including periods of relatively faster economic-growth-based catching up and significant fallback stages driven by numerous endogenous or exogenous shocks. The study assumed that the region’s most crucial vulnerability is the relatively high dependence on Foreign Direct Investment that contributes to the fluctuating nature of economic growth, and also, it might be viewed as an obstacle to long-term sustainable development. In the frames of the research, the authors present an alternative comparative method for specifying the actual level of economic development of the defined country group from economic, political and social perspectives, relying on the most recent data published by international organizations, NGOs and thinktanks. As a result, an aggregate ranking was established for the four countries based on 21 individual indices, taking into consideration their dependent market economy attributes and, also, unique patterns of economic growth. Furthermore, the study also provides a dynamic evaluation of the trends concerning the narrow approach of using ten indices for a protracted period, investigating whether Hungary has been converging, diverging or stagnating with respect to the three Visegrad and Balkan economies. To what extent are Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and Romania still affected by the historical burden of the former regime, and what perspectives might they have for realizing convergence in the near future to the more developed economies?