Prediction of Degraded Infrastructure Conditions for Railway Operation

Abstract

In the railway sector, rolling stock and infrastructure must be maintained in perfect condition to ensure reliable and safe operation for passengers. Climate change is affecting the urban and regional infrastructure through sea level rise, water accumulations, river flooding, and other increased-frequency extreme natural situations (heavy rains or snows) which pose a challenge to maintenance. In this paper, the use of artificial intelligence based on predictive maintenance implementation is proposed for the early detection of degraded conditions of a bridge due to extreme climatic conditions. For this prediction, continuous monitoring is proposed, with the aim of establishing alarm thresholds to detect dangerous situations, so restrictions could be determined to mitigate the risk. However, one of the main challenges for railway infrastructure managers nowadays is the high cost of monitoring large infrastructures. In this work, a methodology for monitoring railway infrastructures to define the optimal number of transductors that are economically viable and the thresholds according to which infrastructure managers can make decisions concerning traffic safety is proposed. The methodology consists of three phases that use the application of machine learning (Random Forest) and artificial cognitive systems (LSTM recurrent neural networks).