Investigating the Role of Bias Correction Methods and Climate Models on Water Budget of Büyük Menderes Basin

Abstract

Büyük Menderes Basin is one of the largest basins in Turkey, with almost half of the basin area utilized for agricultural purposes. The amount of water allocated to the agricultural areas in the basin corresponds to 80% of water use in the watershed. Hence, the impact of climate change on the water supply in the Büyük Menderes Basin will be significant for the basin. In this study, we model the effects of climate change on the water budget (water supply and demand balance) of the Büyük Menderes Basin using the Water and Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool. Future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data for the basin are attained from outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model (GCM), along with CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M regional circulation models (RCM) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Subsequently, the study applies different statistical bias correction methods (Linear Scaling (LS), Distribution Mapping (DM), Local Precipitation Scaling (PLIS), and Power Transformation of Precipitation (PTP) for raw outputs of GCMs and RCMs and analyzes the changes in outcomes of projected climate data and the impact of changes on the hydrology of the basin using the WEAP model. For this analysis, calibrated and validated WEAP model for the 12 reservoirs of Büyük Menderes Basin is used to understand the impact of different bias correction methods on reservoir levels.