Determination of Potential Distribution Areas of Quercus cerris (Turkish oak) in Anatolia According to Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the potential suitable distribution areas for Quercus cerris in the future depending on climate change scenarios. For this purpose, current spatial distribution data and 19 bioclimatic variable data downloaded from the WorldClim 2.1 database were used. The bioclimatic variable data consist of the climate data for the 2081-2100 period belonging to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the MIROC6 climate model with resolution of 2.5 arc-minutes. PCA was applied to bioclimatic variable data. MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 software were used to generate the models. The accuracy of the models was measured as 0.79 accuracy with the AUC test value. The variables that contributed the most to the model were BIO4 (temperature seasonality) with 39.8%, BIO9 (mean temperature of driest quarter) with 26.7%. According to the results, it is predicted that the spatial distribution of this species unsuitable habitat areas, which is 25.9% today, will increase by 54.1% according to the SSP 245 scenario and by 80.2% according to the SSP 585 scenario. While the suitable habitat areas for Q. cerris in Anatolia are 33.2% today, they will change in a decreasing direction in the future by 11.6% according to the SSP 245 scenario and 14.0% according to the SSP 585 scenario. In addition to the direct impact of climate change scenarios on Q. cerris, when changes in land use are taken into account, the current distribution areas and suitable distribution areas of the species should be preserved with sustainable development goals