HOW POPULATION DENSITY AND WELFARE AFFECT CRIME RATES: A STUDY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE, INDONESIA

Abstract

Purpose: A one-fold increase in population has the potential to increase the per capita crime rate by more than two times and possibly four or six times.  In a country with a large population like Indonesia, the threat of crime can occur at any time. An increase in crime can also occur due to declining welfare levels such as during a recession in a country. Therefore, this study aims to see how population density and welfare affect crime rates.   Desaign/methodology/data analysis: The analysis used panel data from 38 regencies/cities in East Java province. This study separates the forms of crime based on the type so that the results will be more in-depth. The methods used are the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model.   Finding: The results of this study show that per capita income and population density affect the crime rate in East Java. It found no significant association between economic shock and crime rates. When a shock occurs, government policy will provide peace for the community. So, they will focus more on improving their economic conditions rather than committing crimes.   Originality/value: This study provides a valuable empirical contribution by analyzing how population density and welfare impact the increase in crime in the community. This study examines the impact that occurs when an area experiences an economic shock that causes its welfare to decline, whether it will make people tend to commit crimes or focus on economic improvement.   Practical Implication: In densely populated areas, even though their welfare has declined due to economic shocks, it turns out that people are more focused on making economic improvements than committing criminal acts to improve their welfare. This is because of government intervention through policies that guarantee the economy so that people feel safe and can work and do better.