Nexus Between Pension Funds and Stock Market Sustainability Development in Nigeria

Abstract

Objective: It has long been recognized that pension systems across the emerging markets including Nigeria have undergone dramatic reforms over the last twenty-eight years. This process has mainly been fueled by the demographic problem faced by modern financial systems. Hence, this study examines the short-run and long-run dynamic of pension funds on capital market development in Nigeria using ex-post facto research design.   Method: Data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and annual report of the pension fund commission from 1995 to 2022.  Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test and auto regressive lag model (ARDL) and Toda Yamamoto multivariate granger causality approach. The unit root test reveal that all the variables used in the study are non-stationary at first difference except inflation which is stationary at level.   Results: The findings from the ARDL analysis reveal a short-run dynamic impact between pension funds and capital market development due to the coefficient of error correction mechanism (speed of adjustment) which is negative and significant at 5% level of significant. The result suggests that over 22% of the short run disequilibrium is corrected in the long run equilibrium. However, the results from the long-run dynamic impact reveal a positively significant impact between the proxies of pension funds (pension contributory fund, pension investment) and control variable - inflation to be positively significant with capital market development proxied by market capitalization as a ratio to GDP at 5% level of significant. The results of the Toda Yamamoto granger causality results suggest a bidirectional relationship between pension funds (pension contributory fund, pension investment) and market capitalization as a ratio of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria at aggregate level. This suggest that the relationship between pension funds (pension contributory fund, pension investment) and market capitalization as a ratio of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Nigeria was two-ways.   Conclusion: The study concludes that pension fund administrators in Nigeria should understand that the rate of inflation is dynamic in Nigeria and the value of money is being lost as money is not worth it values in the next five years.