Commodity Market Efficiency: New Evidence From the Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

We re-evaluate the efficiency of selected commodity markets during the Russia-Ukraine crisis using the asymptotic normal variance ratio test. We find that there is a substantial difference in the commodity prices before and after the war’s commencement. We also show that the markets are weak-form inefficient before and after the invasion except for gasoline and oats which became efficient during the war. We highlight the investment implications of the findings.