Risk factors and prognosis of metabolic syndrome in perimenopausal women with hypothyroidism

Abstract

One of the main problems is that the metabolic syndrome (MS) is not clinically manifested until thesignificant carbohydrate and lipid metabolism violations, that initiate a pathological range of symptoms, leading to cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, non-alcoholic steatohepatosis, impairment of reproductive function and other diseases. Conco­mitant endocrine disorders create a background on which dyshormonal and metabolic factors are superimposed. Therefore, an urgent and important task is the correct, and most importantly timely, interpretation of existing risk factors for metabolic disorders in women of perimenopausal age with concomitant hypothyroidism (HT), purposed on their correction to prevent or slowdown the development of complications.Aim — to develop a mathematical model for assessing the prognostic value of risk factors for investigation ofMSdevelopment and progression in perimenopausal women with HT.Materials and methods. 146 perimenopausal women with HT were examined to predict the MS development. Multiple regression analysis was used to construct prognostic model of MS risk.Results. With the help of logistic regression analysis, the following significant multicollinear risk factors for MS have been identified: triglycerides, thyroid-stimulating hormone, vitamin D, and waist circumference. A correlation matrix with the calculation of regression coefficients and coefficient of determination was constructed, and mathematical model was created to determine the coefficient of the MSprogression. The developed mathematical model for predicting of MSdevelopment had a high predictive accuracy, which confirms the compliance of the predicted results with the theoretically expected. The probability that patients will develop MS with a previously predicted risk of MS was 96.1 % (p < 0.05).Conclusions. The developed mathematical model of the predictionof metabolic syndromedevelopment against the background of hypothyroidism is highly informative and allows to determine in advance the contingent of women with high probability of MS development for the timely implementation of appropriate preventive measures.