The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements

Author:

Bennett Bruce W.1,Lind Jennifer2

Affiliation:

1. Bruce W. Bennett is Senior Defense Analyst at the RAND Corporation.

2. Jennifer Lind is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.

Abstract

In North Korea, the upcoming leadership transition in the Kim Jong-il regime will be a precarious time for the Kim family's hold on power. A collapse of the North Korean government could have several dangerous implications for East Asia, including “loose nukes,” a humanitarian disaster, a regional refugee crisis, and potential escalation to war between China and the United States. To respond to a collapse and these problems, neighboring countries may perform several military missions to stabilize North Korea. These include the location and securing of North Korean weapons of mass destruction, stability operations, border control, conventional disarmament, and combat/deterrence operations. Assuming that collapse occurs in a relatively benign manner, military missions to stabilize North Korea could require 260,000 to 400,000 troops. If collapse occurs after a war on the peninsula, or if it sparks civil war in North Korea, the number of missions—and their requirements—would grow. Because of the size and complexity of these missions, and because of the perils associated with mismanaging them, advance and combined planning is essential. Combined planning should include those actors (e.g., China, South Korea, and the United States) that could otherwise take destabilizing action to protect their own interests.

Publisher

MIT Press - Journals

Subject

Law,Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science

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1. Elite Management before Autocratic Leader Succession: Evidence from North Korea;World Politics;2024-07

2. Strategies of Political Control under Kim Jong Un;Asian Survey;2023-04-24

3. The Deliberate Employment of US Nuclear Weapons: Escalation Triggers on the Korean Peninsula;Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament;2022-04-11

4. North Korea as a Method: A Critical Review;Journal of Korean Studies;2021-10-01

5. Understanding the threat;Defense Planning and Readiness of North Korea;2021-04-02

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