Climate Change during and after the Roman Empire: Reconstructing the Past from Scientific and Historical Evidence

Author:

McCormick Michael1,Büntgen Ulf2,Cane Mark A.3,Cook Edward R.4,Harper Kyle5,Huybers Peter6,Litt Thomas7,Manning Sturt W.8,Mayewski Paul Andrew9,More Alexander F. M.10,Nicolussi Kurt11,Tegel Willy12

Affiliation:

1. Michael McCormick is Francis Goelet Professor of Medieval History, Harvard University. He is the author of Origins of the European Economy: Communications and Commerce, a.d. 300–900 (New York, 2002); “History's Changing Climate: Climate Science, Genomics, and the Emerging Consilient Approach to Interdisciplinary History,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History, XLII (2011), 251–273.

2. Ulf Büntgen is Scientific Researcher, Swiss Federal Research Institute wsl and the occr, University of Bern. He is the author of, with H. Kauserud and S. Egli, “Linking Mushroom Productivity and Phenology to Climate Variability,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, X (2012), 14–19.

3. Mark A. Cane is G. Unger Vetlesen Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences and Director, Master of Arts Program in Climate and Society, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University. He is the author of, with S. Hsiang et al., “Civil Conflicts Are Associated with the Global Climate,” Nature, 476 (2011), 438–441.

4. Edward R. Cook is Ewing Lamont Research Professor, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University. He is the author of, with R. Seager et al., “Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC Projections of Hydroclimatic Change In A Long-Term Paleoclimate Context,” Journal of Quaternary Science, XXV (2010), 48–61.

5. Kyle Harper is Assistant Professor of Classics and Letters, University of Oklahoma, Norman. He is the author of Slavery in the Late Roman World, AD 275–425 (New York, 2011).

6. Peter Huybers is Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University. He is the author of, with Cristian Proistosescu and Adam C. Maloof, “To Tune or Not to Tune: Detecting Orbital Variability in Oligo-Miocene Climate Records,” Earth and Planetary Science Letters,” 325/326 (2012), 100–107.

7. Thomas Litt is Professor of Palaeobotany, University of Bonn. He is the author of, with C. Schölzel et al., “Vegetation and Climate History in the Westeifel Volcanic Field (Germany) during the Last 11,000 Years Based on Annually Laminated Lacustrine Sediments,” Boreas, XXXVIII (2009), 679–690.

8. Sturt W. Manning is Goldwin Smith Professor of Classical Archaeology and Director of the Malcolm and Carolyn Wiener Laboratory for Aegean and Near Eastern Dendrochronology, Cornell Tree Ring Laboratory, Cornell University. He is the author of, with Andrew Manning et al., The Late Roman Church at Maroni Petrera: Survey and Salvage Excavations 1990–1997, and Other Traces of Roman Remains in the Lower Maroni Valley, Cyprus (Nicosia, 2002).

9. Paul Andrew Mayewski is Professor and Director, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine. He is the author of, with M. C. Morrison, Journey into Climate: Exploration, Adventure and the Unmasking of Human Innocence (Santa Fe, 2011).

10. Alexander F. M. More is a Ph.D. candidate, Department of History, Harvard University. He is the author of “Civic Medicine” and “Averroës,” in Robert E. Bjork (ed.), Oxford Dictionary of the Middle Ages (New York, 2008).

11. Kurt Nicolussi is Associate Professor, Institute of Geography, Innsbruck University. He is the author of, with Ulf Büntgen et al., “2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility,” Science, CCCXXXI (2011), 578–582.

12. Willy Tegel is Researcher, Institute for Forest Growth, University of Freiburg. He is the author of, with Ulf Büntgen et al., “2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility,” Science, CCCXXXI (2011), 578–582.

Abstract

Growing scientific evidence from modern climate science is loaded with implications for the environmental history of the Roman Empire and its successor societies. The written and archaeological evidence, although richer than commonly realized, is unevenly distributed over time and space. A first synthesis of what the written records and multiple natural archives (multi-proxy data) indicate about climate change and variability across western Eurasia from c. 100 b.c. to 800 a.d. confirms that the Roman Empire rose during a period of stable and favorable climatic conditions, which deteriorated during the Empire's third-century crisis. A second, briefer period of favorable conditions coincided with the Empire's recovery in the fourth century; regional differences in climate conditions parallel the diverging fates of the eastern and western Empires in subsequent centuries. Climate conditions beyond the Empire's boundaries also played an important role by affecting food production in the Nile valley, and by encouraging two major migrations and invasions of pastoral peoples from Central Asia.

Publisher

MIT Press - Journals

Subject

History and Philosophy of Science,History,History and Philosophy of Science,History

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