Spatiotemporal Analysis of Old World Diseases in North America, A.D. 1519–1807

Abstract

Over the last 25 years, a significant amount of archaeological and ethnohistoric research has produced data on Native American population trends after European contact. These include the timing and severity of depopulation and specific Old World diseases, allowing for meta-analytical research on a variety of topics. These data have been used in studies to explore the severity of depopulation, but the spatial and temporal patterns of diseases have been studied less. This research employs spatial analysis methods—Mantel tests and kriging—to study the relationship between the location and timing of Old World disease events on continental and regional scales, with the goal of examining how diseases spread over time and space. The results show that the timing of disease-related depopulation closely correlated with location, indicating that disease events clustered with regard to time and space. This strongly suggests that individual disease events impacted local populations and did not spread long distances (> 300 km) until the late seventeenth century. The analysis also reveals variations in the speed with which diseases spread. Interpreting the results with respect to pathogen, host, and environmental factors suggests that population distributions and landscape may have played significant roles in where and how fast diseases spread.