Prognostic Nomogram for Overall Survival in Patients with Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Abstract

Abstract Purpose This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and compare it with traditional prognostic systems. Materials and methods We included 1,070 consecutive and nonselected patients with DLBCL in the National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, between 2006 and 2012. A nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model was developed. Results The entire group were divided into the primary (n = 748) and validation (n = 322) cohorts. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 64.1% for the entire group. Based on a multivariate analysis of the primary cohort, seven independent prognostic factors including age, Ann Arbor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score, lactate dehydrogenase, β2-microglobulin, CD5 expression, and Ki-67 index were identified and entered the nomogram. The calibration curve showed the optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. In addition, the concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for OS prediction was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81) in the primary cohort and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70–0.81) in the validation, superior to that of the international prognostic index (IPI), revised IPI (R-IPI), and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-IPI (range, 0.69–0.74, p<.0001). Moreover, in patients receiving rituximab plus CHOP (R-CHOP) or R-CHOP-like regimens, compared with IPI (C-index, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.69–0.77), R-IPI (C-index, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.66–0.74), or NCCN-IPI (C-index, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66–0.75), the DLBCL-specific nomogram showed a better discrimination capability (p < .0001). Conclusions The proposed nomogram provided an accurate estimate of survival of patients with DLBCL, especially for those receiving R-CHOP or R-CHOP-like regimens, allowing clinicians to optimized treatment plan based on individualized risk prediction. Implications for Practice A diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)-specific prognostic nomogram was developed based on Chinese patients with DLBCL. As a tertiary hospital, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences is the number 1 ranked cancer center in China, with more than 800,000 outpatients in 2018. Patients included in this study were nonselected and came from 29 different provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China. Thus, the data is believed to be representative to an extent.