The Critical Role of Tumor Size in Predicting Prognosis for T1 Colon Cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background The role of horizontal growth index of tumor size in survival prediction is still underappreciated in colon cancer because of the identification of vertical infiltration index reflected by T stage. We sought to reveal the impact of T stage on the prognostic and predictive value of tumor size in colon cancer. Materials and Methods Data of patients with stage I–III colon cancer were extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) and Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) databases. Harrell's concordance index (c-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to analyze the discriminative ability of prognostic factors. Results Stratified analyses based on T stage found that the increase of T stage significantly and negatively repressed the effect of tumor size on death and recurrence risk. In addition, tumor size showed the greatest hazard ratio of cancer-specific death and relapse in T1 colon cancer. Even more importantly, the discriminatory ability of tumor size outperformed any other widely accepted prognostic clinical features in predicting cancer-specific survival (SEER: c-index 0.637, area under the ROC [AUC] 0.649; FUSCC: c-index 0.673, AUC 0.686) and disease-free survival (FUSCC: c-index 0.645, AUC 0.656) in T1 stage colon cancer. Conclusion Tumor size is a critical clinical factor with considerable prognostic and predictive value for T1 colon cancer, and it should be selectively incorporated into the current staging system to facilitate prediction of death and recurrence risk.