Repressing Protest: Threat and Weakness in the European Context, 1975-1989

Abstract

Research on state repression of protest focuses on two key factors: threat and weakness. States repress protest events when they threaten state authorities and social norms (threat), when they lack organizational strength and political voice (weakness), or when they do both. I test these competing explanations in the context of Western European protests from 1975 to 1989. This analysis goes beyond previous research by exploring the effect of threat and weakness in multiple domestic contexts. The findings suggest that threat is the most powerful explanation of repression, whereas weakness only occasionally predicts repression and depends on country-specific contexts. The importance of the findings lie in their ability to emphasize (1) the universality of situational threat to police "on-the-ground" over theories that view a calculating state "up-above," and (2) the seemingly unified perception (in advanced democracies) of protest as an increasingly legitimate form of political participation that does not beget repression.