A Cohort Analysis of Clinical and Ultrasound Variables Predicting Cancer Risk in 20,001 Consecutive Thyroid Nodules

Abstract

Abstract Context Assessing thyroid nodules for malignancy is complex. The impact of patient and nodule factors on cancer evaluation is uncertain. Objectives To determine precise estimates of cancer risk associated with clinical and sonographic variables obtained during thyroid nodule assessment. Design Analysis of consecutive adult patients evaluated with ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration for a thyroid nodule ≥1 cm between 1995 and 2017. Demographics, nodule sonographic appearance, and pathologic findings were collected. Main Outcome Measures Estimated risk for thyroid nodule malignancy for patient and sonographic variables using mixed-effect logistic regression. Results In 9967 patients [84% women, median age 53 years (range 18 to 95)], thyroid cancer was confirmed in 1974 of 20,001 thyroid nodules (9.9%). Significant ORs for malignancy were demonstrated for patient age <52 years [OR: 1.82, 95% CI (1.63 to 2.05), P < 0.0001], male sex [OR: 1.68 (1.45 to 1.93), P < 0.0001], nodule size [OR: 1.30 (1.14 to 1.49) for 20 to 19 mm, OR: 1.59 (1.34 to 1.88) for 30 to 39 mm, and OR: 1.71 (1.43 to 2.04) for ≥40 mm compared with 10 to 19 mm, P < 0.0001 for all], cystic content [OR: 0.43 (0.37 to 0.50) for 25% to 75% cystic and OR: 0.21 (0.15 to 0.28) for >75% compared with predominantly solid, P < 0.0001 for both], and the presence of additional nodules ≥1 cm [OR: 0.69 (0.60 to 0.79) for two nodules, OR: 0.41 (0.34 to 0.49) for three nodules, and OR: 0.19 (0.16 to 0.22) for greater than or equal to four nodules compared with one nodule, P < 0.0001 for all]. A free online calculator was constructed to provide malignancy-risk estimates based on these variables. Conclusions Patient and nodule characteristics enable more precise thyroid nodule risk assessment. These variables are obtained during routine initial thyroid nodule evaluation and provide new insights into individualized thyroid nodule care.