General Comorbidity Indicators Contribute to Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX: Registry-Based Cohort Study

Author:

Kline Gregory A1ORCID,Morin Suzanne N2,Lix Lisa M3,McCloskey Eugene V4,Johansson Helena45,Harvey Nicholas C67,Kanis John A45,Leslie William D3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Medicine, University of Calgary , Calgary T2N 2T9 , Canada

2. Department of Medicine, McGill University , Montreal H3A 1G1 , Canada

3. Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba , Winnipeg R3E 0W2 , Canada

4. Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School , Melbourne S5 7AU , UK

5. Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University , Melbourne 3000 , Australia

6. MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit , Southampton SO17 1BJ , UK

7. NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Center, University of Southampton , Southampton SO16 6YD , UK

Abstract

AbstractContextFRAX® estimates 10-year fracture probability from osteoporosis-specific risk factors. Medical comorbidity indicators are associated with fracture risk but whether these are independent from those in FRAX is uncertain.ObjectiveWe hypothesized Johns Hopkins Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG®) score or recent hospitalization number may be independently associated with increased risk for fractures.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included women and men age ≥ 40 in the Manitoba BMD Registry (1996-2016) with at least 3 years prior health care data and used linked administrative databases to construct ADG scores along with number of hospitalizations for each individual. Incident Major Osteoporotic Fracture and Hip Fracture was ascertained during average follow-up of 9 years; Cox regression analysis determined the association between increasing ADG score or number of hospitalizations and fractures.ResultsSeparately, hospitalizations and ADG score independently increased the hazard ratio for fracture at all levels of comorbidity (hazard range 1.2-1.8, all P < 0.05), irrespective of adjustment for FRAX, BMD, and competing mortality. Taken together, there was still a higher than predicted rate of fracture at all levels of increased comorbidity, independent of FRAX and BMD but attenuated by competing mortality. Using an intervention threshold of major fracture risk >20%, application of the comorbidity hazard ratio multiplier to the patient population FRAX scores would increase the number of treatment candidates from 8.6% to 14.4%.ConclusionBoth complex and simple measures of medical comorbidity may be used to modify FRAX-based risk estimates to capture the increased fracture risk associated with multiple comorbid conditions in older patients.

Funder

Manitoba Centre for Health Policy

Population Health Research Data Repository

Manitoba Health

Seniors and Active Living

Manitoba Bone Density Program Committee

Publisher

The Endocrine Society

Subject

Biochemistry (medical),Clinical Biochemistry,Endocrinology,Biochemistry,Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism

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