Development and External Validation of Risk Scores for Cardiovascular Hospitalization and Rehospitalization in Patients With Diabetes

Abstract

Abstract Context Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common and costly reason for hospitalization and rehospitalization among patients with type 2 diabetes. Objective This study aimed to develop and externally validate two risk-prediction models for cardiovascular hospitalization and cardiovascular rehospitalization. Design Two independent prospective cohorts. Setting The derivation cohort includes 4704 patients with type 2 diabetes from 18 general practices in Cambridgeshire. The validation cohort comprises 1121 patients with type 2 diabetes from post-trial follow-up data. Main Outcome Measure Cardiovascular hospitalization over 2 years and cardiovascular rehospitalization after 90 days of the prior CVD hospitalization. Results The absolute rate of cardiovascular hospitalization and rehospitalization was 12.5% and 6.7% in the derivation cohort and 16.3% and 7.0% in the validation cohort. Discrimination of the models was similar in both cohorts, with C statistics above 0.70 and excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. Conclusion Two prediction models that quantify risks of cardiovascular hospitalization and rehospitalization have been developed and externally validated. They are based on a small number of clinical measurements that are available for patients with type 2 diabetes in many developed countries in primary care settings and could serve as the tools to screen the population at high risk of cardiovascular hospitalization and rehospitalization.