Experience in using statistical and mathematical technologies to assess the impact of atmospheric pollution on public health in a large industrial center

Abstract

Introduction. The issue of air pollution is relevant in cities where the majority of the population lives and a large number of industrial enterprises are concentrated in relatively small areas. Currently, the federal project “Clean Air” is being implemented in 12 industrial centres of Russia within the framework of the national project “Ecology”. The purpose of the work was to justify using statistical and mathematical methods for assessing the impact of atmospheric pollution on the health of the population in the city of Novokuznetsk, Kemerovo region. Materials and methods. The following methods were used: assessment and management of public health risk, statistical analysis methods: factor analysis, multiple regression analysis, discriminant analysis. Results. Statistical indices and public health risk parameters can be used to assess the impact. Examples of the effect of complex pollution indices (the main components of pollution, the integral indicator P) and the concentrations of individual impurities in the air basin (suspended substances, ozone) were given. The carcinogenic risk to the population of Novokuznetsk, calculated from the calculated concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, was found to exceed the acceptable risk threshold. The specific weight of carcinogens in the formation of the risk to other oncological incidence was determined. An assessment of the risk from the emissions of a coal-processing plant located near residential areas of the city was carried out. The values of the hazard indices showed an excess of the acceptable non-carcinogenic risk only from the emissions of the coal processing plant, taking into account the background level of air pollution in the air basin. Conclusion. In Novokuznetsk, it is proposed to use the method of ranking atmospheric protection measures in terms of the unit cost of risk reduction in health risk management. To manage the risk, it is proposed to calculate the population indices of aerogenic hazard or the probabilistic parameters of the individual threat associated with air pollution. It is noted that a 20-22% reduction in pollutant emissions for Novokuznetsk may not be enough. The reasonable measures for the further study of the aerogenic impact on the population of the city are presented.