Variability of parameters of the COVID-19 epidemic process due to influence of regional social-hygienic factors

Abstract

Introduction. Within the theory on self-regulation of parasitic systems, natural and social factors are considered not only the necessary condition for interaction between an infectious agent and susceptible organisms but they are also seen as regulators of phase transformations over the epidemic process. The COVID-19 epidemic process, if it conforms to postulates outlined in this theory, should be determined by influence of certain combination of environmental factors. The purpose of the study. To establish priority social and hygienic environmental factors potent of modifying COVID-19 epidemic process on the RF territory. Materials and methods. We applied correlation-regression and factor analysis to establish cause-effect relations between environmental factors and parameters of the COVID-19 epidemic process. Parameters of the COVID-19 epidemic process were identified based on the SIR+L compartment model and used as dependent variables. Overall, 263 factors were examined; they were conditionally divided into seven groups (anti-epidemic activities, environment, etc.). Results. The study findings revealed several priority statistically significant factors. They include anti-epidemic activities (“population covered by vaccination” especially in older age groups (r = –0.67–(–)0.69)), levels of economic development on a given territory (gross regional product (r = –0.22)), socioeconomic wellbeing of population (households’ expenditures on food (r = 0.27)), lifestyle indicators (retail alcohol sales as per specific products (r = 0.21–0.38)), quality of the environment, workplace included (r = 0.11–0.22), urbanization (motorway density (r = 0.18)), weather and climatic factors (average monthly temperatures (r = 0.22), average monthly insolation (r = –0.25)) and others. Limitations. The set of the examined priority factors and a period of their analysis can be considered limitations of the present study. Conclusion. The obtained estimates as regards the priority environmental factors determining the COVID-19 epidemic process can be used when developing systemic strategic decisions on public health protection and securing its safety both in specific regions and the country as a whole.