Climate Change-based Estimation of Non-working Days for Construction Plan

Abstract

Significant global climate change has recently occurred, and an increase in natural disasters is predicted in the future. Currently, climate change, such as heat waves, heavy rain, and typhoons, affects severely vulnerable regions, such as Korea. Consequently, it has various effects on the construction environment and is expected to make a significant difference in the progress of future construction work. Therefore, this study aimed to determine how climate change can affect future construction work restricted by weather conditions and conducted a study on how future construction schedules should be adjusted. After performing a bias correction on the future climate scenarios of CMIP6, the latest scenario released through the Earth System Model (ESM), we compared and analyzed the weather observation data with SSP245 and SSP585. It was calculated how much the rate of temperature change would impact the construction environment in the future. As a result of the analysis, both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a tendency that As a result of the analysis, both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios show a tendency that the number of non-working days (NWD) for construction increases as the period increases from the base. In addition, the results indicated that the number of days of increase for SSP585 was higher than that for SSP245. The number of NWD was found to increase in the future under the SSP585 scenario, which takes extreme climate change into consideration. The construction period calculation is anticipated to undergo significant changes as a result of this outcome, which has a substantial impact on the construction plan and execution.