Applicability of Lindley Distribution for Hydroelectric Dam Operations in the Dry Season

Abstract

The long-term low-flow data are necessary for efficient planning of water resources and for estimating accurate quantiles via runoff data analysis at point. However, the short recording time period, low confidence, inconsistent distribution model, and parameter estimation method, make it difficult to estimate a proper low-flow quantile for each return period. In this study, the Lindley distribution model, which is a mix of the exponential and the gamma distribution models and has been verified as efficient by previous studies, was used to analyze the low-flow frequency using dam inflow data. We studied its applicability via comparison with statistics of observed data and other models already used for low-flow frequency analysis. For this, we carried out a performance analysis through a low-flow frequency analysis of inflow data from the hydroelectric dam and the reappearance capacity assessment of observed data at the Han river watershed. As a result, the hydrological applicability of the Lindley distribution model and its relative qualitative and quantitative excellence compared to the existing model were verified.