COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

Author:

Ardabili Sina Faizollahzadeh,Mosavi AmirORCID,Ghamisi Pedram,Ferdinand Filip,Varkonyi-Koczy Annamaria R.,Varkonyi-Koczy Annamaria R.,Reuter Uwe,Rabczuk Timon,Atkinson Peter M.

Abstract

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

Publisher

Center for Open Science

Cited by 34 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Makine Öğrenimi Teknikleri kullanılarak COVID-19 Pandemisinin ölüm oranının sınıflandırılması;Erzincan Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi;2022-08-31

2. A Survey of Recent Studies on COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Using Statistical and Machine Learning Methods;Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi;2022-04-22

3. Covid-19 Detection Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning;International Journal of Advanced Research in Science, Communication and Technology;2022-03-26

4. A machine learning approach for modeling decisions in the out of hospital cardiac arrest care workflow;BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making;2022-01-25

5. Performance Analysis of Logistic Regression, KNN, SVM, Naïve Bayes Classifier for Healthcare Application During COVID-19;Innovative Data Communication Technologies and Application;2022

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3