Z-Curve.2.0: Estimating Replication Rates and Discovery Rates

Author:

Bartoš František,Schimmack Ulrich

Abstract

This article introduces z-curve.2.0 as a method that estimates the expected replication rate (ERR) and the expected discovery rate (EDR) based on the test-statistics of studies selected for significance. Z-curve.2.0 extends the work by Brunner and Schimmack (2019) in several ways. First, we show that a new estimation method using expectation-maximization outperforms the kernel-density approach of z-curve.1.0. Second, we examine the coverage of bootstrapped confidence intervals to provide information about the uncertainty in z-curve estimates. Third, we extended z-curve to estimate the number of all studies that were conducted, including studies with non-significant results that may not have been reported, solely on the basis of significant results. This allows us to estimate the EDR; that is, the percentage of significant results that were obtained in all studies. EDR can be used to assess the size of the file-drawer, estimate the maximum number of false positive results, and may provide a better estimate of the success rate in actual replication studies than the ERR because exact replications are impossible.

Publisher

Center for Open Science

Cited by 14 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3