A Study of Hindsight Bias: The Rodney King Case in Retrospect

Abstract

68 subjects completed a short questionnaire asking them to predict, five days before a verdict was reached, the outcome and aftermath of the well-publicized Rodney King civil rights trial. Ten days after the verdict was reached, the subjects were asked to recall their responses to the questionnaire. Results were compatible with hindsight bias inasmuch as errors in recall were more likely to be consistent than inconsistent with the trial's outcome and aftermath. The hindsight bias phenomenon was interpreted in the context of a reconstructionist approach to memory.