Looking forward in Records of Young Adults Convicted of Sexual Homicide, Rape, or Molestation as Youth: Risks for Reoffending

Abstract

To assess the risks predicting reoffense, 223 Rapists ( M age = 14.2 yr., SD = 1.5; 25 girls, 198 boys) were matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; risks were analyzed using logistic regression. The one predictor was prior court contacts ( OR = 1.55e+12; AUC = .99, 95%CI = .98−.99). 223 Molesters were similarly matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; this comparison yielded three predictors: previous court contacts ( OR = 4.55e+23), poorer executive function ( OR = 2.01), and lower social maturity ( OR = .97; AUC = .98, 95% CI = .97−.99). Records for all cases (now M age = 24.2 yr., SD = 1.4) were reviewed forward 10 years and youth were classified into groups: Sexual Homicidal (1%, n = 7), Delinquent Rapists Later Adult Rapists (11%, n = 73), Delinquent Rapists (21%, n = 144), Delinquent Molesters Later Adult Molesters (10%, n = 69), Delinquent Molesters (23%, n = 153), Nonviolent Delinquent Later Nonviolent Adult Criminals (7%, n = 45), and Nonviolent Delinquents (27%, n = 178). Comparison of Sexual Homicidal cases ( n = 7) with their matched Controls ( n = 7) yielded one predictor, poorer executive function ( AUC = .89, 95 % CI = .71−.93). When Sexual Homicidal cases were matched with Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were low social maturity and prior court contacts ( AUC = .81, 95%CI= .64−.93).