Quantifying the association between Arctic Sea ice extent and Indian precipitation

Abstract

AbstractThe unprecedented sea ice loss in the Arctic is due to its stronger surface warming than other parts across the globe, resulting in far‐flung effects on weather and climate at different spatial and temporal scales. We investigate how Arctic Sea ice and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are associated at seasonal scale and when preconditioned by Arctic Oscillation (AO) phases. This study also examines the potential predictability using correlation and composite analysis. The results indicate a significant decline in sea ice extent (SIE) at a rate of 0.055 Mkm2/year (p < 0.05). The strong association between SIE and precipitation in the Indian region is confirmed by correlation values ranging from −0.6 to 0.6 (p < 0.05). The spatial patterns of seasonal SIE and precipitation association remain consistent for 1979–2021. We found that the prevailing AO phases influence the association of sea ice with ISMR precipitation. The high correlation between SIE and ISMR anomalies suggests that Arctic Sea ice could be a reliable predictor for ISMR.