A clinical risk score enables early prediction of dissatisfaction 1 year after total knee arthroplasty

Abstract

AbstractPurposeDissatisfaction after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a prevalent and clinically relevant problem that affects approximately 10%–20% of patients. The aim of this study is to identify factors associated with dissatisfaction 1 year after TKA.MethodsA total of 236 patients undergoing TKA were included in this prospective cohort study. Demographic data, preoperative clinical parameters (e.g., axial alignment, osteoarthritis severity) and patient‐reported outcome measures (PROMs) were collected preoperatively, at 1 month and 1 year after TKA, encompassing the Knee Society Score (KSS) and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS). The primary outcome was dissatisfaction 1 year after TKA, defined as ≤20 points on the KSS satisfaction scale. A risk score based on multiple regression and area under the curve (AUC) analyses was calculated to predict dissatisfaction.ResultsOne year after TKA, 16% of the patients were dissatisfied. Dissatisfied patients were significantly younger (p = 0.023) and had a higher body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.007). No differences were observed in preoperative objective (p = 0.903) and functional KSS (p = 0.346), pain (p = 0.306), osteoarthritis severity (p = 0.358), axial knee alignment (p = 0.984) or psychological distress (p = 0.138). The likelihood of dissatisfaction at 1 year was 3.0, 4.0, 7.4, 4.3 and 2.8 times higher amongst patients aged <63.5 years, with a BMI > 30.1 kg/m2, a KOOSPain < 50%, a KSSFunction < 42 points and a KSSExpectation < 9 points (all at 1 month), respectively. Using these variables, a risk score with a maximum of 7 points was developed, demonstrating a high predictive value for dissatisfaction (AUC: 0.792 [95% confidence interval: 0.700–0.884], p < 0.001).ConclusionDissatisfaction 1 year after TKA can be predicted by a weighted risk score that includes patient age, BMI, pain, subjective functionality and unmet expectation 1 month postoperatively. Using the risk score, early detection of dissatisfaction has the potential to enable targeted interventions and improve patients' quality of life.Level of EvidenceLevel II, Prognostic study.