Observed and projected changes in wet and dry spells for the major river basins in East Asia

Author:

Huang Lirong1,Du Haibo12ORCID,Dang Yongcai1,He Hong S.3,Wang Lei4,Na Risu5,Li Na1,Wu Zhengfang1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences Northeast Normal University Changchun China

2. Key Laboratory of Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education Northeast Normal University Changchun China

3. School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA

4. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun China

5. School of Geographical Sciences Inner Mongolia Normal University Hohhot China

Abstract

AbstractSpatiotemporal changes in wet and dry spells had significantly contributed to climate‐related natural hazards in East Asia, especially in river basins undergoing warming. However, few studies have systematically analysed these changes for river basins at different latitudes. Herein, we investigated the observed and projected variations in wet and dry spells for East Asian river basins at different latitudes. We found that river basins at low latitudes (Yangtze and Pearl rivers) had obvious wet characteristics, whereas those at high latitudes (Amur and Yellow rivers) had obvious dry characteristics. In general, the river basins presented a ‘wet south but dry north’ spatial pattern. Long‐duration wet spells have been shown to be the primary contributor to total wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, while long‐duration dry spells have been found to be the primary contributor to total dry spells in high‐latitude river basins. Importantly, climate is changing from prolonged wet spells to short, intense wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, whereas the climate is changing from single, short dry spells to moderate, prolonged dry spells at high latitudes. These changes indicate a high probability of flash floods in river basins at low latitudes and a high probability of droughts at high latitudes. In the future, more temporally clustered heavy precipitation events and prolonged dry spells may lead to increasingly uneven precipitation in high‐latitude river basins and the Pearl River basin, especially under the higher shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. In contrast, more frequent consecutive heavy precipitation events may aggravate the risk of flooding in the Yangtze River basin. These findings are expected to serve as a guide for flood and drought risk mitigation in East Asia under a warming climate.

Funder

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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