The death burden of colorectal cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors, trend analysis from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundThe death burden attributable to modifiable risk factors is key to colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and regional distribution of attributable CRC death burden worldwide from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019 and assessed the mortality, age‐standardized death rate (ASDR), population attributable fractions, and time trend in CRC attributable to risk factors by geography, socio‐demographic index (SDI) quintile, age, and sex.ResultsOver the past 30 years, from high to low SDI region, the number of deaths increased by 46.56%, 103.55%, 249.64%, 231.89%, 163.11%, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for ASDR were −1.06%, −0.01%, 1.32%, 1.19%, and 0.65%, respectively. ASDR in males was 1.88 times than in females in 2019; ASDR in males showed an increasing trend (AAPC 0.07%), whereas ASDR in females showed a decreasing trend (AAPC −0.69%) compared to figures in 1990. In 2019, from high to low SDI region, the 15–49 age group accounted for 3%, 6%, 10%, 11%, and 15% of the total population; dietary and metabolic factors contributed 43.4% and 20.8% to CRC‐attributable death worldwide. From high to low SDI region, ASDRs caused by dietary and metabolic factors increased by −23.4%, −5.5%, 25.8%, 29.1%, 13.5%, and 1.4%, 33.3%, 100.8%, 128.4%, 77.7% respectively, compared to 1990.ConclusionsThe attributable CRC death burden gradually shifted from higher SDI to lower SDI regions. The limitation in males was more significant, and the gap is expected to be further expanded. In lower SDI regions, the death burden tended to affect younger people. The leading cause of CRC‐attributable deaths was the inadequate control of dietary and metabolic risk factors.