An analysis of the spatial variation of tropical cyclone rainfall trends in Mainland Southeast Asia

Abstract

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) and the associated rainfall (TCR) have received increasing attention because of their catastrophic damages. Due to the differences in TC characteristics and TCR in different ocean basins, the changes in TCR would be complicated for areas receiving TC landfalling from multi‐basins. Therefore, separating TCR and TC characteristics from the formation basins can offer more insights for accurately evaluating TCR in the landfalling areas. Here we selected the TC‐prone Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) to investigate changes in TCR regarding TC characteristics from the surrounding formation basins from 1983 to 2020. Results show that the interannual variability of the total TCs influencing MSEA (MSEA‐ALL‐TC) characteristics, including number, total duration, maximum intensity and accumulated cyclone energy, was dominated by the TCs originating from the Western North Pacific (WNP‐TC). However, the total TCR was controlled by the TCs originating from the WNP and the South China Sea (SCS‐TC), whose influence on TCR was concentrated in the eastern MSEA. TCR associated with TCs originating from the Bay of Bengal was relatively small and concentrated in the western MSEA. For the whole MSEA, the total TCR contributed up to 47% of the annual extreme rainfall amount. Annual TCR presented significant decreasing trends in the southeast MSEA, while increasing trends exist in the northeast. These contrasting trends are attributed to the reduced tendency of WNP‐TC track density and the increased SCS‐TC rainfall rate. We also found that the SCS‐TC induced a higher rainfall rate than the other two basins. The TC characteristics of number, total duration, maximum intensity and accumulated cyclone energy were significantly correlated with TCR in each formation basin, with the highest correlation of the total duration. This study improves our understanding of the influence of changes in TC characteristics on TCR in the TC multi‐source region.