Effect of straying, reproductive strategies, and ocean distribution on the structure of American shad populations

Author:

Poulet Camille1ORCID,Lassalle Géraldine1,Jordaan Adrian2,Limburg Karin E.3,Nack Christopher C.4,Nye Janet A.5,O'Malley Andrew6,O'Malley‐Barber Betsy67,Stich Dan S.8,Waldman John R.9ORCID,Zydlewski Joseph10,Lambert Patrick1

Affiliation:

1. INRAe, UR EABX Cestas France

2. Department of Environmental Conservation University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts USA

3. Department of Environmental Biology State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry Syracuse New York USA

4. Ramboll Syracuse New York USA

5. Department of Earth, Marine and Environmental Sciences University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Institute of Marine Sciences Morehead City New York USA

6. Gomez and Sullivan Engineers Henniker New Hampshire USA

7. University of Maine Orono Maine USA

8. Biology Department and Biological Field Station State University of New York Oneonta Oneonta New York USA

9. Biology Department Queens College, City University of New York Queens New York USA

10. US Geological Survey Maine Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and The University of Maine Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology Orono Maine USA

Abstract

AbstractThe use of species distribution models has proliferated, providing insights for sustainable management of migratory species in a globally changing environment. However, many of these models are based on statistical relationships developed from historical conditions that may not perform well under changing or even analogous conditions caused by climate change. In this paper, we used a mechanistic species distribution model called GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics for Diadromous Fish Distribution) to examine the integrated dynamics of American shad (Alosa sapidissima) populations across their native range along the Eastern U.S. coast, where the species demonstrates latitudinal variations in life histories and reproductive strategies. The initial design of the model was adapted to incorporate region‐specific parameterization to fit the species ecology. Then, a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the influences of uncertain processes regarding American shad distribution at sea, straying and reproduction on key characteristics of the species distribution. The sensitivity analysis showed the influence of the Allee effect (i.e., “depensatory” process) and the homing rate (i.e., fidelity to the breeding sites) on the probability of presence and abundances among catchments and metapopulations estimated by the model. Contrary to the homing rate, the distance of straying did not change the estimated number of metapopulations or abundances. Homing strength, however, was quite influential. The integration of complex migration patterns during the marine phase (i.e., wintering and summering offshore areas) provided more likely estimates of the species' overall distribution. Overall, our study illustrated the utility of incorporating factors governing the large‐scale distribution of migratory species to improve local management.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Ecology,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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