Down‐set thresholds

Abstract

AbstractWe elucidate the relationship between the threshold and the expectation‐threshold of a down‐set. Qualitatively, our main result demonstrates that there exist down‐sets with polynomial gaps between their thresholds and expectation‐thresholds; in particular, the logarithmic gap predictions of Kahn–Kalai and Talagrand (recently proved by Park–Pham and Frankston–Kahn–Narayanan–Park) about up‐sets do not apply to down‐sets. Quantitatively, we show that any collection of graphs on that covers the family of all triangle‐free graphs on satisfies the inequality for some universal , and this is essentially best‐possible.